Defining National Fossil Fuel Phase Out Roadmaps: A Colombian Case Study

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<p>Colombia’s fossil fuel phase-out roadmap outlines a pathway to reduce fossil fuel use by around 90% by 2050, combining electrification, renewable energy expansion, and structural economic transformation across sectors. Developed through a collaboration between Colombian and UK experts, the plan emphasises a "Real Zero" transition that prioritizes absolute emission reductions over offsets.</p>
<p>In the power sector, the transition is driven by rapid deployment of solar and wind energy, replacing fossil-based generation and enabling a largely renewable electricity system. In transport, the roadmap emphasises large-scale electrification—particularly electric vehicles and public transport—alongside the use of biofuels and hydrogen for heavy and long-distance transport. The industry and buildings sectors focus on energy efficiency improvements and electrification of heat and processes, supported by low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture for harder-to-abate activities. Beyond end-use sectors, the roadmap highlights a major economic shift away from fossil fuel exports toward alternative industries, including green hydrogen, biofuels, and critical minerals, to maintain economic stability. Lastly, cross-cutting measures include substantial investment in clean energy, grid expansion, and demand-side management, all framed within a “just transition” approach to ensure economic resilience and social stability.All in all, the roadmap addresses the critical need for a "just transition" by proposing a structured plan to replace declining fossil fuel export revenues with new sectors, such as critical mineral exports like copper, and ensuring support and retraining for affected communities.</p>

Colombia's Roadmap for Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels

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An aim to achieve a quantifiable outcome within a given time-frame, set by an institution such as a national government.

Policy instruments are techniques or tools used by governing authorities to promote certain policies in order to achieve predetermined goals. Put simply, instruments are how a government tries to achieve its goals, with this taxonomy being focused on national policy instruments.

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Groups  of people who are adversely affected by climate change or the response to it

A set of principles, processes, and practices that build economic and political power to shift from an extractive economy to a regenerative economy.

Renewable energy means all forms of energy produced from renewable sources in a sustainable manner.

Fossil fuel is a generic term for non-renewable energy sources such as coal, fossil gas, and oil (including crude oil, and petroleum products), that can be used for electricity and heat generation. Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons formed from pressurised and heated organic material buried over millions of years.

Molecules in the atmosphere that play a key role in the greenhouse effect by trapping heat radiating from Earth’s surface.

Area of the economy in which actors engage in identical or related activities.

In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate change and its effects, in order to moderate harm, increase resilience or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate change and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate change and its effects.

The management and allocation of funds, assets and investments to meet various objectives

Any compulsory, unrequited payment to the government levied on corporations or individuals. This can be for environmental reasons, such as introducing a Carbon tax to set a price that emitters must pay for the greenhouse gases they emit.

Terrestrial means "of the earth" and relates to the risks to ecological system that includes all living organisms and their interactions within land-based environments, such as forests, grasslands, and deserts.

Aligning the skills of the workforce with the requirements of the just transition.

A ban is a legal action that prevents the sale or supply of a product or service, or that recalls a product from the market. Examples are bans on SF6, greenwashing, fossil fuel advertisement or single-use plastics.

This sector includes firms and individuals offering specialised expertise in fields such as law, accounting, consulting, science and engineering.

Energy derived from biological compounds that are renewable due to their short life cycle within the carbon dioxide cycle.

A drought is an extended period of unusually dry weather marked by a significant and sustained lack of precipitation, falling below a specific threshold over a large area for more than a month

Financial actors and resources that are primarily directed towards climate change mitigation, adaptation and compensation.

Activities of businesses and institutions that provide financial services and products to individuals and organisations.

Air pollution involves harmful contaminants in the air, affecting both indoor and outdoor environments. It can lead to health issues like respiratory diseases and heart problems, and climate impacts such as global warming. Pollutants can damage plants, trees, habitats, and water bodies like rivers and lakes.

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A commitment to balance GHG emissions with removal by a certain point in time, effectively reducing the net emissions to zero

Activities of industries that extract natural resources, such as mining, oil, and gas, for commercial use.

Oil is a combustible liquid fossil fuel composed mainly of hydrocarbons, occurring as crude oil and refined into petroleum products such as petrol, diesel and kerosene.

Actions or measures to adapt freshwater systems to climate change.

People who are less able to respond to the effects of climate change due to having limited financial or physical assets

Electrical energy generated from mechanical devices driven by flowing fresh water.

Production of electricity and heat from solar irradiation.

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Conditions that enhance the feasibility of adaptation options. Enabling conditions include finance, technological innovation, strengthening policy instruments, institutional capacity, multi-level governance and changes in human behaviour and lifestyles.

Dedicated pool of financial resources for climate-related projects.

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woman and genders outside of the gender binary

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This sector involves activities to move goods and people, alongside the storage of products.

Fossil gas, commonly known as natural gas, is a fossil fuel consisting chiefly of methane with smaller amounts of other hydrocarbons and trace gases, found in underground deposits.

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A long-lived, colourless gas, chiefly emitted from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation and cement production.

A subsidy is a direct or indirect payment to individuals or businesses, typically provided as a government cash payment or a specific tax reduction.

Social and cultural groups that share collective ancestral ties to the lands and natural resources where they live, occupy or from which they have been displaced

People with different national or cultural traditions from the dominant population

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Direct investments by the governments using public funds. This can be to support climate initiatives or integrate climate into other projects.

The activities of industries that transforms raw materials into finished goods through industrial processes.

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Heat extracted from the ground, usually in the form of hot water or steam and typically referred to as hydrothermal fluid.

The release of heat-trapping gases, primarily from human activities such as burning fossil fuels, agriculture and industry.

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Slow onset events evolve gradually from incremental changes over many years or from increased frequency or intensity of recurring events. As defined in the Cancun Adaptation Framework (2010), slow onset events include risks and impacts from rising temperatures, desertification, biodiversity loss, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and salinization.

A target to reduce the prevalence of a greenhouse gas over a specific time frame

Activities that involve the cultivation of crops and raising of livestock for food, fibre, and other products essential for human life and industry.

Coal is a combustible sedimentary rock formed from carbonised plant matter, rich in carbon and hydrocarbons, and occurring in several main types including hard coal and brown coal.

Either money or something of monetary value is transferred between two or more organisations, people or countries.

Social protection systems consist of policies that help people manage social risks in order to prevent poverty and maintain decent incomes and living standards

Kinetic energy of airflow transformed into useful energy, mostly electrical energy.

A company that is owned wholly or partially by the state, typically operating in key sectors.

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A potent, short-lived greehouse gas, largely released from livestock, fossil fuel extraction and waste management.

Activities of government agencies and institutions that provide public services, enforce laws and manage public resources.

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Defining National Fossil Fuel Phase Out Roadmaps: A Colombian Case Study

Target

Policy instrument

Risk

Impacted group

Just transition

Renewable energy

Fossil fuel

Greenhouse gas

Economic sector

Adaptation/resilience

Finance