The plan analyses how climate change, together with national socio-economic and demographic trends, contributes to disaster risk and population vulnerability in Bulgaria. Climate change is expected to have an overall negative impact. A general declining trend in precipitation is projected, with significant regional variation. In Eastern Bulgaria, average precipitation is expected to decrease by 5–10%, and in some areas by as much as 15–20%. Winters classified as cold under current climate conditions are expected to occur less frequently by the 2050s and to largely disappear by the 2080s, while hot summers are projected to become increasingly frequent.
Regional climate scenario models for Bulgaria estimate changes in air temperature and precipitation for two time horizons: the near future (2021–2050) and the distant future (2071–2100). Average annual air temperature is expected to increase by 1.6–3.1°C in the near future and by 2.9–4.1°C in the distant future. Over the coming decades, a steady increase in climate-related disasters, such as heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and floods, is anticipated. With medium to high confidence, extreme heat, droughts, and forest fires are expected to intensify by 2050. While projections for precipitation-related hazards such as floods and landslides are more uncertain, recent trends of increasing precipitation intensity suggest that the frequency and severity of these events are also likely to rise by mid-century.

Disaster Risk Management Plan

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An aim to achieve a quantifiable outcome within a given time-frame, set by an institution such as a national government.

Policy instruments are techniques or tools used by governing authorities to promote certain policies in order to achieve predetermined goals. Put simply, instruments are how a government tries to achieve its goals, with this taxonomy being focused on national policy instruments.

Risk is the potential for adverse consequences resulting from the dynamic interplay between (climate-related) hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of affected human or ecological systems.

Groups  of people who are adversely affected by climate change or the response to it

A set of principles, processes, and practices that build economic and political power to shift from an extractive economy to a regenerative economy.

Justice is the ethical and political framework that addresses fairness, including issues of responsibility, rights, and structural inequity.

Renewable energy means all forms of energy produced from renewable sources in a sustainable manner.

Fossil fuel is a generic term for non-renewable energy sources such as coal, fossil gas, and oil (including crude oil, and petroleum products), that can be used for electricity and heat generation. Fossil fuels are hydrocarbons formed from pressurised and heated organic material buried over millions of years.

Molecules in the atmosphere that play a key role in the greenhouse effect by trapping heat radiating from Earth’s surface.

Area of the economy in which actors engage in identical or related activities.

In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate change and its effects, in order to moderate harm, increase resilience or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate change and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate change and its effects.

The management and allocation of funds, assets and investments to meet various objectives

People who are less able to respond to the effects of climate change due to having limited financial or physical assets

A loan is a policy instrument where funds are provided to a borrower with the expectation of repaying the principal plus interest.

Direct investments by the governments using public funds. This can be to support climate initiatives or integrate climate into other projects.

Financial support to help individuals manage the effects of unexpected events, securing their livelihoods and increasing the resilience of people and businesses to the changing climate. It’s especially vital in developing regions where everyday risks, climate-related weather extremes, or crop failures can push people into poverty. Without insurance, people may have to resort to selling assets or cutting consumption to cope with losses.

Financial actors and resources that are primarily directed towards climate change mitigation, adaptation and compensation.

Finance that is primarily directed towards climate change adaptation, including increasing resilience and robustness to actual or expected climate change and its effects.

Either money or something of monetary value is transferred between two or more organisations, people or countries.

Conditions that enhance the feasibility of adaptation options. Enabling conditions include finance, technological innovation, strengthening policy instruments, institutional capacity, multi-level governance and changes in human behaviour and lifestyles.

Actions or measures to adapt terrestrial systems to climate change.

Actions or measures to adapt freshwater systems to climate change.

Actions to adapt human health, healthcare systems and well-being to climate change.

Actions and measures to adapt and increase resilience of societies and the economy to climate change.

Actions or measures to adapt freshwater, coastal and marine systems to climate change.

Hot temperature extremes are daily maximum temperatures  that were exceeded on average once in a decade or once in 50 years, and includes heatwaves.

Actions to reduce emissions in energy generation and supply.

Extreme weather refers to events where a weather variable exceeds (or falls below) a threshold. Meaning it is significantly different from the average or usual weather pattern.

A drought is an extended period of unusually dry weather marked by a significant and sustained lack of precipitation, falling below a specific threshold over a large area for more than a month

Terrestrial means "of the earth" and relates to the risks to ecological system that includes all living organisms and their interactions within land-based environments, such as forests, grasslands, and deserts.

Social protection systems consist of policies that help people manage social risks in order to prevent poverty and maintain decent incomes and living standards

Social inclusion is the process of improving the terms on which individuals and groups take part in society—improving the ability, opportunity, and dignity of those disadvantaged on the basis of their identity.

Oil is a combustible liquid fossil fuel composed mainly of hydrocarbons, occurring as crude oil and refined into petroleum products such as petrol, diesel and kerosene.

Fossil gas, commonly known as natural gas, is a fossil fuel consisting chiefly of methane with smaller amounts of other hydrocarbons and trace gases, found in underground deposits.

People with different national or cultural traditions from the dominant population

Any compulsory, unrequited payment to the government levied on corporations or individuals. This can be for environmental reasons, such as introducing a Carbon tax to set a price that emitters must pay for the greenhouse gases they emit.

The activities of industries that transforms raw materials into finished goods through industrial processes.

This sector involves managing waste treatment, sanitation, pollution control and environmental cleanup.

This sector involves activities to move goods and people, alongside the storage of products.

Activities that provide lodging, food, and entertainment services to guests, including hotels, restaurants, and resorts.

This sector provides communication services, software development, and IT solutions.

Activities of government agencies and institutions that provide public services, enforce laws and manage public resources.

Activities of businesses and institutions that provide financial services and products to individuals and organisations.

Activities that involve the cultivation of crops and raising of livestock for food, fibre, and other products essential for human life and industry.

Activities involving the catching, processing, and selling of fish for food, recreation, and industry.

This sector involves the distribution, treatment, and conservation of water resources.

This sector provides medical services, manufactures medical equipment, and develops pharmaceuticals to maintain and improve health.

the fair distribution of risks and opportunities of climate change and the transition to a regenerative economy, cognisant in particular of disproportionate impacts on vulnerable communities and the working class

Procedural justice means ensuring that decision making is safe, transparent and inclusive, emphasizing the agency and influence of vulnerable groups and those most impacted.

Climate change can have a range of impacts on technological system. Extreme weather events can cause infrastructure failures like power outages or damage to roads and bridges, as well as the impacts from waste following natural disasters. Human activities also cause technological impacts, such as the risks posed by oil spillage and leaks.

Any substance with chemical properties that can cause physical harm to people or damage the environment, including ammonia, carbon monoxide, phosphine, chlorine, arsenic, cadmium, mercury, pesticides, dioxins, microplastics, benzene, asbestos, aflatoxins, fluoride, methanol, and toxins from marine sources.

Climate change impacts our society by disrupting the natural, economic and social systems we depend on. Physical hazards and underlying vulnerabilities can lead to increased resource competition for food and water, which can heighten the risk of conflict.

Heavy precipitation refers to any form of weather where substances fall from the sky, including rain, snow, sleet, or hail.

Geohazards are adverse geological phenomenon's that are capable of causing widespread damage or loss to property, life and the environment, such as earthquakes, volcano eruptions and tsunamis. Climate change can increase the frequency and severity of some geohazards, such as landslides, and soil erosion.

Disaster Risk Management Plan

Policy instrument

Risk

Impacted group

Just transition

Climate justice

Fossil fuel

Greenhouse gas

Economic sector

Adaptation/resilience

Finance