The plan analyses how climate change, together with national socio-economic and demographic trends, contributes to disaster risk and population vulnerability in Bulgaria. Climate change is expected to have an overall negative impact. A general declining trend in precipitation is projected, with significant regional variation. In Eastern Bulgaria, average precipitation is expected to decrease by 5–10%, and in some areas by as much as 15–20%. Winters classified as cold under current climate conditions are expected to occur less frequently by the 2050s and to largely disappear by the 2080s, while hot summers are projected to become increasingly frequent.
Regional climate scenario models for Bulgaria estimate changes in air temperature and precipitation for two time horizons: the near future (2021–2050) and the distant future (2071–2100). Average annual air temperature is expected to increase by 1.6–3.1°C in the near future and by 2.9–4.1°C in the distant future. Over the coming decades, a steady increase in climate-related disasters, such as heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and floods, is anticipated. With medium to high confidence, extreme heat, droughts, and forest fires are expected to intensify by 2050. While projections for precipitation-related hazards such as floods and landslides are more uncertain, recent trends of increasing precipitation intensity suggest that the frequency and severity of these events are also likely to rise by mid-century.
